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A mathematical-ecological model with flexible computer implementation for sustainable management of shrublands
SERG Member: Dr Fleur Tiver Sheep grazing on a saltubush plain
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Description: Many arid zone trees and shrubs are extremely long-lived, so that disruptions to their reproduction may not be obvious for decades or even centuries. 

This project has developed a computer model that allows an operator to enter known values for various population statistics and effects of management, and model the outcome. Rainfall and other environmental variables are incorporated into the model to provide a range of long-term outcomes to populations.  

This allows land-managers (in parks and rangelands) to assess a range of possible outcomes of management decisions made now, to be used in risk-assessment.

 
Publications:
  • Boland J., Rosenberg K., Tiver F. & Watson I. (2007) Estimating the Boundaries of Plant Stage Classes Using the Vandermeer-Moloney Algorithm. International Journal of Ecology and Development 6(W07), 51-9.
  • McArthur L., Boland J. & Tiver F. (2006) A model to detect grazing sensitivity of Myoporum platycarpum in the arid rangelands of South Australia. Natural Resource Modeling 19(4), 587-607.
  • Tiver F. & Keiermeyer A. (2006) Survivorship of seedlings of false sandalwood (Myoporum platycarpum ) in the chenopod rangelands grazed by sheep, kangaroos and rabbits, at Whyalla,  South Australia. Austral Ecology 31(3), 376-87.

 
Conferences:
  • Palisetty R., Tiver F., Boland J., Rosenberg K., McArthur L., Watson I., Auld T., Denham A., Stokes A. & Farroway L. (2006) Using a stage-structured projection model to predict the sustainability of populations of shrubs and trees in the chenopod rangelands of eastern South Australia. In:  The Cutting Edge: Australian Rangeland Society 14th Biennial Conference, Australian Rangeland Society, Renmark, South Australia, September 3-7, pp. 304-7.
  • Tiver F., Rosenberg K., Boland J., McArthur L., Watson I., Auld T., Denham A., Palisetty R., Stokes A. & Farroway L. (2006) A stage-structured projection model incorporating the effects of grazing management and rainfall on populations of shrubs and trees in the Australian rangelands. In:  The Cutting Edge: Australian Rangeland Society 14th Biennial Conference, Australian Rangeland Society, Renmark, South Australia, September 3-7, pp. 380-3.
  • McArthur L, Boland J. & Tiver F. (2005) A model to detect grazing sensitivity of Myoporum platycarpum in the arid rangelands of South Australia. In: 2004 World Conference on Natural Resource Modelling, Conference Programme Abstracts, RMIT University, Melbourne (eds Hearne J., Lamberson R., Reed B., Smith T., Lyon K. & Alexander R.). Resource Modelling Association, RMIT University, Melbourne, December 12-15.
  • Rosenberg K., Boland J., Tiver F. & Watson I. (2005) Application of the Vandermeer-Moloney Algorithm for Determination of Category Size to Australian Native Plants. MODSIM 05: International Conference on Modelling and Simulation,  Melbourne University, Melbourne, 12th-15th Dec.
  • Tiver F., Boland J., Rosenberg K., McArthur L. & Palisetty R. (2005) Prediction of population futures of Myoporum platycarpum, a small tree from the arid chenopod shrubland of South Australia, under various climatic and grazing regimes, using an individual-based matrix model. British Ecological Society Annual Meeting, Hatfield, Hertfordshire, UK, September 5-7.
  • Boland J., Rosenberg K., Tiver F., McArthur L. & Palisetty R. (2004) Rainfall and plant vital rate correlations. 2004 World Conference on Natural Resource Modelling, Resource Modelling Association, RMIT University, Melbourne.
  • Palisetty R., Tiver F., Boland J. & Dickson C. (2004) Herbivory of mulga (Acacia aneura) by sheep, rabbits and kangaroos at Middleback Station, Whyalla, South Australia. Australian Rangeland Society Biennial Conference, Alice Springs.
  • Palisetty R., Tiver F., Boland J. & Dickson C. (2004) Survivorship of mulga (Acacia aneura) seedlings under grazing by sheep, rabbits and kangaroos in the chenopod shrublands, Ecological Society of Australia, Adelaide, South Australia, December 7-10.
  • Rosenberg K., Boland J. & Tiver F. (2004) Modelling monthly rainfall for sustainable management. 2004 World Conference on Natural Resource Modelling, RMIT University, Melbourne.
  • McArthur L., Boland J. & Tiver F. (2003) Parameter estimation for stage-structured projection models using real data. MODSIM 2003 – Integrative Modeling of Biophysical, Social and Economic Systems for Resource Management Solutions, pp 1574-1579, Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand Inc.
Reports:
  • Tiver F., Boland J., McArthur L., Rosenberg K., Watson I., Auld T., Denham A., Palisetty R., Stokes A. & Farroway L. (2007) SHRUBPOP: A stage-structured matrix projection model incorporating the effects of grazing management and rainfall on populations of shrubs and trees in the Australian rangelands. Final Report to the Desert Knowledge Centre for Cooperative Research (DKCRC), Project No. 1.108, Sustainable Environments Research Group (SERG) & Centre for Industrial & Applied Mathematics (CIAM), University of South Australia: Mawson Lakes, Adelaide.

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