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Media Release

December 20 2007

When the heat’s on electricity supplies

Dr John Boland with Luciana MagnanoAirconditioning systems that run on maximum settings during prolonged heat waves stretch the installed capacity of the state’s electricity supply to its limits and sometimes beyond, resulting in power failures and blackouts.

Knowing in advance when electricity demand will be at its highest and lowest is important for utilities to plan for expected surges or variations.

UniSA researchers have developed mathematical models that can predict electricity demand at different times and at varying temperatures.

Dr John Boland from the Centre for Industrial and Applied Mathematics and the Environmental Modelling Research Group, with PhD researcher and President Scholar Luciana Magnano, developed the mathematical models for the Electricity Supply Industry Planning Council (ESIPC) to ensure that sufficient electricity supplies could be generated or acquired to meet the state’s electricity demands.

“The ESIPC wanted to know the characteristics of the electricity demand including the predicted lowest levels and highest peaks, and the likelihood that demand would exceed a load that was close to the installed electricity supply,” Dr Boland said.

“We developed two mathematical models, one for half-hourly electricity demand and the other for half-hourly temperature, to simulate the demand behaviour under different scenarios of temperature. From these simulations the probabilities of occurrence of peak loads can be calculated,” Magnano said.

“Knowing the relationship between supply and demand on a half-hourly basis is important, as we can experience different types of profiles during a day, depending on how extreme the weather is,” Dr Boland said.

“In autumn and springtime we can see a small peak in the morning around breakfast time, a peak around dinner time and even into the evening, especially if it is cool and people turn on heaters. In the middle of summer those small peaks are swamped by a huge airconditioning peak if temperatures are hot,” he said.

“In calculating the models we had to identify other components that affect electricity consumption such as a hot day followed by another hot day, which generates increased demand, when compared with a hot day followed by a cool day.

“We took the mathematical data generated and put it to practical use by calculating the types of models that would fit electricity demand in SA,” Dr Boland said.

In addition to ensuring the state’s electricity supplies, ESIPC staff can use the models for scientific research to inform policy makers on whether to shave the peaks or install more capacity, and to plan for future electricity demand, extra supply, a change in the mix of supply such as the feed in tariff from solar electricity, or even to predict how demand will vary with climate change.

Magnano’s research has resulted in a full-time position as market analyst at the ESIPC, where she has been learning a lot about the National Electricity Market.

“Now I also have the chance of exploring other areas in the National Electricity Market such as the supply side. Analysing the supply capacity and future investments is very interesting, especially if we take into account the drought and the environmental issues,” Magnano said.

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