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Media Release

June 22 2006

Why soccer isn’t the new AFL

With interest in the “World Game” at fever pitch in Australia, UniSA exercise science expert Professor Kevin Norton says Australians should pick up the ball and run with it. However, Prof Norton predicts that this spike in the popularity of soccer among the young will be short-lived.

“Soccer is a fantastic sport. It’s great that kids are showing an interest ─ we know junior soccer clubs are filling up across the country, but I think it will be short lived,” he says.

While Prof Norton says his predictions could be incorrect, he cites statistics that reveal that when participation in a sport increases due to a popular event, it quickly wanes.

“For those additional people that take up soccer because of the World Cup, I think that the half life until they drop out will be about two to four weeks. It’s quite similar to the half life of when people join gyms and then don’t continue,” says Prof Norton.

“We saw a similar situation in the 2000 Olympics, when the women’s polo team won gold. There was much talk about numbers of young girls joining water polo teams, and there were statistics to prove it. But those youngsters came from other sports, and soon after, they went back to them. Women’s polo returned to pre-Olympic participation rates.”

Prof Norton, who is currently on secondment at Sports Knowledge Australia and is also employed as a consultant for the AFL, has recently completed video-analysis research into 10 World Cup finals spanning from 1966-2002. Analysing trends using computer software that tracks speed, Norton says the game has significantly evolved over the years.

“Like football, the game is getting faster and denser. Player density ─ the number of people around the ball ─ is increasing. Players have to make quick decisions in heavy traffic,” he said.

“There is more time out-of-play. When the stakes are high, in terms of money, media and national pride -- and this is especially the case with the World Cup ─ then stop periods are longer,” he says.

This is because it’s critical that officials ensure everything is done correctly, and players take longer to maximise their opportunity to score. As a demonstration of this, Prof Norton says that in soccer, 50 per cent of goals are scored in stop periods.

However, less time in play leads to fresher players with more adrenalin pumping through their veins. This in turn makes the shorter spurts of game faster and more intense.

“This means defensive action is more frequent. Players are becoming very skillful now at protecting shots and goals, and that’s a problem because excitement factor decreases,” says Prof Norton.

“That’s when FIFA got creative and they introduced new things so more goals could be scored. They changed the ball for this World Cup ─ it now has less stitching and more glue. So it drags less. FIFA hoped that this would make action more unpredictable.”

Whether or not this has worked is yet to be completely revealed, but Prof Norton intends to analyse play once the finals are over.

Whether the new ball made any difference to the excitement levels, Norton can’t deny that at least for the moment, everyone has the ‘fever’.

“Soccer is great for health and enjoyment. It’s an excellent aerobic activity, its great for skill development, its fun, and encourages teamwork. Its popularity with juniors is a good thing.”

And with some touting soccer as the new Aussie Rules, how do the two games compare?

“From the data collected at a professional level ─ there are certainly different injuries. Soccer has rules against deliberate contact. In soccer, there are lots more strains and pulls and tears of muscle. In football, you still get some of this, but there are more breakages ─ collarbones, jaws and legs. Also, concussion is more prevalent.

“People think that because there is less collision, soccer is better for kids. But we must remember that because there is more competition and speed in a professional player, these injuries occur. The age of school children presents minimum risks. I would recommend either sports,” says Prof Norton.

But the million dollar question remains… how will the Socceroos fair in the Cup?

Professor Norton believes they could be in with a chance.

“In sports science ─ height is obviously an advantage. Especially with goalkeepers, but also across the board. We are amongst the tallest, so we have that advantage, but we are also the oldest. South Americans are the shortest. The average height of an Australian player is 185 cm ─ identical to Brazil. We also have the same height, weight and age as Brazil.

“But we certainly don’t have the finesse and skill of the Brazilians. From watching them, I think it’s clear that they’ve grown up playing in alleyways and backstreets, as opposed to just schools and league ─ and this of course lends itself to the World Cup circumstance of high density play. But Brazil of course has a much larger talent pool, also.”

While Prof Norton can’t make any professional predictions about the outcomes of tonight’s do-or-die game, he notes one fact that Aussies may want to choose to ignore -- Croatia is slightly taller than Australia.
 

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