Division of Information Technology, Engineering and the Environment
Institute for Sustainable Systems and Technologies
Institute for Sustainable Systems and Technologies
Adelaide Thinker in Residence
Melvin and Joan Lane Professor for Interdisciplinary
Environmental Studies;
Professor, Department of Biological Sciences;
Co-Director, Centre for Environmental Science and Policy at the Stanford
Institute for International Studies,
Stanford University U.S.A.
http://stephenschneider.stanford.edu
Abstract
The phrase "dangerous anthropogenic interference" (DAI) may be
defined or characterised in terms of the consequences (or impacts)
of climate change outcomes, which can be related to the levels and
rates of change of climate parameters. These parameters will, in
turn, be determined by the evolution of emissions and consequent
atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. In addition, scenarios of
social and economic development influence adaptive capacity of
various sectors and regions, which, in turn, influences impact
magnitudes and climate change thresholds that might be labelled
"DAI".
Evaluating the consequences of climate change outcomes to determine
those that may be considered "dangerous" is a complex undertaking,
involving substantial uncertainties as well as value judgments.
Probabilistic estimation is an important method to treat such
uncertainties. This task inevitably involves a mix of objective and
subjective probability measures. What integrated assessment
modelling can do to help explicate this important scientific and
political question is an issue that will be explored in this
presentation.
