When the heat’s on electricity supplies
by Geraldine Hinter
When temperatures rise to 40°C this summer, SA residents may send a quiet blessing to researchers at UniSA’s Centre for Industrial and Applied Mathematics
Dr John Boland from the Centre for Industrial and Applied Mathematics and the Environmental Modelling Research Group, and PhD Researcher and President Scholar Luciana Magnano have been using mathematics to model power demand so that we don’t suffer airconditioning-fuelled blackouts in the hottest months of the year.
The problem - airconditioning systems that run on maximum settings during prolonged heat waves stretch the installed capacity of the State’s electricity supply to its limits and sometimes beyond.
And according to the researchers part of the solution is knowing in advance when electricity demand will be at its highest and lowest so that utilities can plan for the inevitable surges or variations.
The UniSA mathematical models have been developed for the Electricity Supply Industry Planning Council (ESIPC).
"The ESIPC wanted to know the characteristics of the electricity demand including the predicted lowest levels and highest peaks, and the likelihood that demand would exceed a load that was close to the installed electricity supply," Dr Boland said.
"We developed two mathematical models, one for half-hourly electricity demand and the other for half-hourly temperature, to simulate the demand behaviour under different scenarios of temperature. From these simulations the probabilities of occurrence of peak loads can be calculated," Magnano said.
"Knowing the relationship between supply and demand on a half-hourly basis is important, as we can experience different types of profiles during a day, depending on how extreme the weather is," Dr Boland said.
"In autumn and spring we can see a small peak in the morning around breakfast time, a peak around dinner time and even into the evening, especially if it is cool and people turn on heaters. In the middle of summer those small peaks are swamped by a huge airconditioning peak if temperatures are hot," he said.
"In calculating the models we had to identify other components that affect electricity consumption such as a hot day followed by another hot day, which generates increased demand, when compared with a hot day followed by a cool day.
"We took the mathematical data generated and put it to practical
use by calculating the types of models that would fit electricity
demand in SA,"
Dr Boland said.
In addition to ensuring the state’s electricity supplies, ESIPC staff can use the models for scientific research to inform policy makers on whether to shave the peaks or install more capacity, and to plan for future electricity demand, extra supply, a change in the mix of supply such as the feed in tariff from solar electricity, or even to predict how demand will vary with climate change.
Magnano’s research has resulted in a full-time position as market analyst at the ESIPC, where she has been learning a lot about the National Electricity Market.
"Now I also have the chance of exploring other areas in the National Electricity Market such as the supply side. Analysing the supply capacity and future investments is very interesting, especially if we take into account the drought and the environmental issues," Magnano said.