In various contexts expert opinions are sought to assess probabilities over future uncertain events which include risks of various kinds, uncertain demands for resources, the probability assessment of certain future events, the value of non market securities and so on. Once expert opinions are collected, they must be aggregated and used as the basis for decision making.
Contact: John van der Hoek
Mathematical Techniques for the Aggregation of Quantified Expert Opinion. Contract with Joint Operations Division, DSTO 2011-2012. Collaboration with Dr Paul Malcolm.